As Riverside and San Bernardino Counties continue to see an increase in new cases of COVID-19 over the past month, many residents are wondering what the main cause could be. Due to the statewide social distancing rules being lifted in the middle of June, the Delta Variant of COVID-19 making its rounds, and the unvaccinated population these seem to be some of the factors for the increase in COVID-19 cases.

As of July 19th, Riverside County has a seven-day average of 177 new cases of COVID-19 per day. That number is almost five times as much as it was on June 14th, when the county was averaging only 45 new cases per day. For San Bernardino County, it has been even worse. On July 19th, the county was facing a seven-day average of 229 new COVID-19 cases per day, up from only 46 per day on June 14th. 

"The county expected there to be an increase in cases when the restrictions were lifted, simply because people would go back to being close to each other without masks and without social distancing and in restaurants and movie theaters and everywhere else," San Bernardino County public information officer, David Wert, said. "The increase in hospitalizations, though, is clearly caused by the unvaccinated people who are still out there." 

Those unvaccinated people, an estimated 37.7 percent of San Bernardino county's eligible population and an estimated 41 percent of Riverside County's, are being urged to get vaccinated as fast as possible. According to the California Department of Public Health, unvaccinated residents are not only at a higher risk of getting COVID-19, but they are also far more likely to suffer a severe illness, hospitalization, or death. 

"Since February, more than 22,000 new cases were reported in Riverside County and 98.1% of the people who have been infected were unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated, which tells us that the vast majority of them fit in that same pattern," Riverside County Public Information Specialist Jose Arballo said. "So I think it would be safe to say that, they (unvaccinated people) are probably a big factor in this."

In Los Angeles, although vaccine rates are higher than they are in both Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, the spike in unvaccinated people being hospitalized over the last month has led to the county reinstating its indoor mask policy. While some may easily connect the dots and see that as a sign of things to come for the Inland Empire, Arbillo says that reinstating the indoor mask policy isn't yet on the table for Riverside County. 

"At this point, we're not considering it and it hasn't been really brought up," Arbillo said. "Obviously, as it moves forward, we will monitor everything. Hospitalizations, ICU numbers, and if it's warranted, we might be revisiting the issue. But at this point, we have not discussed implementing or reinstating the indoor mask requirements."

According to Wert, San Bernardino County is seemingly in the same boat when it comes to reinstating the policy.

"The county follows the state's guidance at this point, and the state hasn't said anything about masks yet," Wert said. "Our focus is on the vaccinations. Masks definitely do reduce the risk of spreading and contracting, but vaccination is the best tool that there is out there to prevent serious illness."

According to a White House COVID-19 press briefing on July 16 by Dr. Anthony Fauci, Chief Medical Adviser on COVID-19 for the president, the Delta Variant of COVID-19 has been detected in at least 99 countries since the first round in June 2020. Since April 2021, there has been an overall increase of Delta Variant cases worldwide and on July 15, over 80 percent of positive cases were tied to the Delta Variant worldwide. According to the CDC, there are four notable variants in the United States: Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta.

“These variants seem to spread more easily and quickly than other variants, which may lead to more cases of COVID-19,” the CDC stated.

According to Fauci, at least 5 vaccines: Pfizer/BioNtech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Bharat Biotech, have some proof of protection against the Delta variant. Fauci noted that the Pfizer vaccine had a 96% vaccine effectiveness vs hospitalizations with the delta variant.

Vaccination appointments for individuals that are age 12 and up can be made by visiting myturn.ca.gov or by going to a walk-in or drive-in vaccination site. For more information on the safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine, visit cdc.gov.

For more local news and information click here.

Heading into the fall with Covid-19 infection rates still on the rise in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, the same question remains as to what the main cause of the increase is. The common answer given by experts in the field is that it is due to a combination of factors, including unvaccinated people, the statewide mask mandates being lifted, the more easily transmissible Covid-19 variants, and the fact people tend to congregate more freely in the summer months.

One of the most telling statistics when talking about Covid-19 rates is the "positivity rate," which is the percentage of tests given that come back positive for the virus. In Riverside County, from June 15th to August 15th, the positivity rate of all Covid-19 tests conducted in the county jumped from 1.3 percent to 12.2 percent. In San Bernardino, during the same time, the positivity rate jumped from 1.1 to 9.9 percent.

While the increase in positivity rates coincides with the statewide mask mandate being lifted on June 15th, much of the focus has been on vaccinations and not necessarily on social distancing or mask-wearing. Because the increase in positivity rates in both counties (10 percent) is less than the increase in positivity rates around the country (16 percent), it is generally concluded that the lifting of the mask mandate is not the root cause of the rise in infections, considering many states had already lifted their mandate prior to June 15th. 

"Right now the (positivity) numbers continue to go up," Riverside County public information specialist Jose Arballo said, "the best advice we have is to get vaccinated. That's the best protection against the variants and also against the original virus."

The variants, including the Delta variant which the Center for Disease Control (CDC) says causes more infections and spreads faster than the earlier forms of Covid-19, have been the subject of much of the talk lately regarding the virus. The Delta Variant is the most prominent in the United States at the moment and seems to produce the same amount of virus in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, the CDC says.

In "breakthrough infections," however, where someone is infected after being fully vaccinated, the amount of virus goes down much faster than with infections of unvaccinated people, showing that vaccinated people are infectious for less time than unvaccinated people. 

They add that while initial studies show that fully vaccinated people who become infected with the Delta variant can spread the virus to others, getting vaccinated is particularly effective against severe illness, hospitalization, and death. 

According to San Bernardino County public information officer David Wert, San Bernardino County is a prime example of vaccinations being the most effective protection against the Covid-19 and all of its variants. Wert said the county is just following the data that they accumulate, and the numbers point them in that direction.

"Since February, we have data on our county Covid-19 dashboard that shows that 90 percent of all ICU cases came from people who were not fully vaccinated," Wert said. "When it comes to deaths, the number is 149-5 regarding people who aren't fully vaccinated vs. those that are." 

Even with the numbers supporting vaccination, both Riverside and San Bernardino counties are falling behind in the percentage of citizens that are fully vaccinated. The statewide percentage of Californians that are fully vaccinated is 55 percent, but for Riverside County, that number is just 45 percent, and in San Bernardino County the number is just 43 percent. 

"Everyone that we can reach, we urge to get vaccinated," Wert said, "It is an individual choice that everyone must make if we are going to get back to any semblance of our past lives." 

Anyone over the age of 12 can now get the vaccine and appointments can be made at myturn.ca.gov or by going to a walk-in or drive-in vaccination site. For more information on the safety and effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccines, visit cdc.gov.

For more local news and information click here.

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